Some say that comparison is the “thief of joy”. While this may be true when it comes to material possessions, statistics is based on comparisons. A lack of a proper reference point, or not adjusting for certain variables can skew data dramatically. This can be in one way or another, depending on what the researcher wants to present.
If you are in the middle of a pandemic, and you want people to take it seriously, comparison can play a big advantage in some aspects and disadvantage in others.
Find your way around:
Comparisons Advantage:
When other countries, including our ally Italy, were hit hard by the current pandemic, it is wise to learn from their mistakes and improve our chances to be able to treat all those who need it. This is a fundamentally basic principle and we should take care of those in our country who are immunocompromised.
We can also learn from countries like South Korea. After a major screening push were able to test a larger percentage of the population. The country has since passed the peak in infections. Science Magazine noted that as of March 17th, 2020 (when South Korea had been hardest hit), South Korea had tested 270,000 people. This amounts to “more than 5200 tests per million inhabitants.”
If we test more of the population, the results of the test are reliable, and returned in a timely fashion, testing can make a difference. To be reliable there needs to be a low chance of miss diagnosing cases. To be timely the results need to be returned quickly enough for the results to change the habits of the infected.
Comparisons Disadvantage:
If we compare the demographics of the population in Italy to the American population, we find many differences. Italy’s elderly population makes up 23% of its citizens as of 2018 (The World Bank – Data); while only 16% of the U.S. population as of 2018 is 65 and older (US Census).
Each population is unique
Cultures, religion, community connection, “work life balance,” pollution exposure, and accessibility to fresh produce all differ in each country. To a greater extend each community within it. In using results to extrapolate to different groups. We can only make an estimation or prediction based on our previous data.
As a PhD student with a focus on epidemiology, I am training to look for aspects in the data that may skew the results dramatically. These are confounding variables. These typically include: age, sex, race, ethnicity, and education. Some also include pre-existing conditions. Those who have gone through a health crisis may be more aware and follow safety guidelines better. Ultimately, decreasing their chance of exposure.
Another variable to consider is dietary patterns. The Standard American Diet (SAD) is High in: fat, processed food, animal protein and dairy intake; and Low in: fruits, vegetables, and whole grains. The general consensus in the scientific literature is this dietary pattern is not health promoting. Instead, the Standard American Diet often leads to chronic health conditions. This includes but not limited to: high blood pressure, coronary heart disease, Type II diabetes, and cancer. These chronic conditions are not just limited to one per person. This combination of underlying illness that may put them at higher risk (comorbidity) for complications due to any type of infection.
Why does it seem like we have stopped tracking recovery?
If recovery is what matters, shouldn’t this be the highlight of what we focus on in this stressful time? Yes, we know that unfortunately not everyone will survive. However, there are two possible outcomes to every virus or bacterial infection. If we only focus on deaths and not the recovered, it makes it seem like there is only one outcome.
Part of recovery from the virus depends on the timeline of the infection. The virus in question for the current pandemic seems to take several days before symptoms arise (incubation time). It continues to replicate for up to 15 days. If you are diagnosed on day 2 of your infection and you recover at home then you would need to be tested again on day 16. This means that there is a 2 week lag period in which you are not yet classified in either category. Two weeks after a major spike in cases there should be a similar spike in recovery.
Each person that has been classified as a positive case, should in theory be followed up with after the incubation time has passed. However, these numbers are not always up to date because of a lack of personnel available to check in on those who have had the virus and recovered. The focus should be on treating those with severe symptoms who are at high risk, so we must be patient until these confirmations of recovery can be identified.
Photo by Diandra, July 2019
How does the Flu Season in the US compare?
Every winter we go through what is referred to as “the Flu season”. A time in which different versions of the influenza virus are formed and spread throughout our population. We have vaccines that are available and some level of immunity (meaning that if you have experienced a similar type of virus before then your body can fight and recover quicker). Not all cases of the flu can be treated at home. Hospitalizations and deaths from influenza occur each year, since the virus changes (mutates) each year.
Here are estimates from the CDC that are for the United States only, not world-wide. It is important to note the major difference between these numbers and the current pandemic which shows the total cases worldwide.
This graphic shows the number of cases of the flu. Each year do vary and some years are worse than others. The influenza virus may not get as much media attention each year because the CDC has been monitoring the flu season for many years and developed models (a mathematical calculation used to form a prediction based on pre-existing data). These models can estimate the number of cases mid-flu season as shown below.
So is there any good news?
Yes, since the current pandemic is a novel virus (meaning one that we have not experienced before as a population), future prediction models will use this year as a reference. The higher death rate of the virus is also due to the fact that it is novel. We haven’t built up immunity to this as a population, although after this current wave of the virus, that will change.
Once we have a level of immunity in the population, any future versions of this type of virus will make less of an impact and have a reduced death rate. This is a result of a quickened immune response to a known virus, which will inhibit further spread in future exposures.
Hopefully we can learn from this as a country and as a global community that we should take every flu season more seriously. Proper sanitation of public places should become routine. Those that are sick should be encouraged to take off work and get better (without worry of job security). That we should act selflessly and do what we can to help those in need and at higher risk.
My Advise:
Try not to be scared by the numbers as they will not be accurate until this all has passed. Be aware, but don’t obsess. Do your part to “stay safer at home,” and I believe that together we can get through this and come out stronger on the other side.
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